Titel: Future Hype: The Myths of Technology Change
Autor/en: Bob Seidensticker
März 2006 - kartoniert - 254 Seiten
Everyone knows that today's rate of technological change is unprecedented. With technological breakthroughs from the Internet to cell phones to digital music and pictures, everyone knows that the social impact of technology has never been as profound.
But everyone is wrong. In fact, the pace of change isn't notably faster than in times past and most "revolutionary" technologies are just refinements of past breakthroughs. Using dozens of entertaining examples, high-tech industry veteran Bob Seidensticker debunks nine technology myths, proving that:
The rate of change is not exponential (myth #1),
Important new products don't arrive any faster than they ever have (myth #3),
The Internet doesn't really change everything (myth #8), and much more.
Future Hype exposes the hidden costs of technology and will help both consumers and businesses take a shrewder position when the next 'essential' innovation is trotted out.
Introduction: Leveling the Exponential Curve
THE WAYS WE SEE TECHNOLOGY INCORRECTLY
The Birthday-Present Syndrome
The Perils of Prediction
The Unintended Wager
If It Ain't Broke, Be Grateful
More Powerful Than a Locomotive
Faster Than a Speeding Bullet
Leap Tall Buildings in a Single Bound
THE MORE THINGS CHANGE . . .
For Better or For Worse
Playing with Matches
Fear and Anxiety
Technologies That Touch Us
What's Mine Is Mine
Conclusion: Vaccinate Against the Hype
About the Author
Bob Seidensticker is a successful writer who graduated from MIT and then spent 25 years in the technology industry, including an 8-year stint at Microsoft as a project manager. He resigned from Microsoft in 1997 to write software as an independent developer and to pursue a writing career.
"A must-read for those who think the Internet changes everything."
-Bob Frankston, VisiCalc developer and computer industry pioneer
"This clear-eyed, level-headed, historically sophisticated view of the realities of technological change by a knowledgeable insider will be absorbing reading for early adopters, neo-Luddites, and everyone in between."
-Edward Tenner, author of Why Things Bite Back: Technology and the Revenge of Unintended Consequences
"Future Hype is a great antidote to the familiar boosterism about unprecedented technological growth. Seidensticker puts technological change into historical perspective, which enables us to measure progress against what we have known, rather than against what we are promised."
-Henry Petroski, Aleksandar S. Vesic Professor of Civil Engineering and Professor of History, Duke University, and author of Pushing the Limits
".... a wonderful compendium of the way the world works, and not just the way it should work. Future Hype reveals when we should be optimistic and when we should be skeptical.... An important contribution."
-Michael Shermer, Publisher, Skeptic magazine and the "Skeptic" columnist for Scientific American