A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally
Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world's foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more.
In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial arenas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every maximization strategy. This book fills a gap in the literature on this increasingly important topic.
Following an introductory chapter offering background information necessary for a full understanding of the forecasting issues covered, this book:
* Introduces advanced methods of time series forecasting, as well as neural networks
* Provides in-depth coverage of state-of-the-art power system load forecasting and electricity price forecasting
* Addresses river flow forecasting based on autonomous neural network models
* Deals with price forecasting in a competitive market
* Includes estimation of post-storm restoration times for electric power distribution systems
* Features contributions from world-renowned experts sharing their insights and expertise in a series of self-contained chapters
Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is a valuable resource for practicing engineers, regulators, planners, and consultants working in or concerned with the electric power industry. It is also a must read for senior undergraduates, graduate students, and researchers involved in power system planning and operation.
Inhaltsverzeichnis
Preface and Acknowledgments vii
Contributors ix
1. Introduction 1
Mohamed E. El-Hawary
2. Univariate Methods for Short-Term Load Forecasting 17
James W. Taylor and Patrick E. McSharry
3. Application of the Weighted Nearest Neighbor Method to Power System Forecasting Problems 41
Antonio Gó mez-Expó sito, Alicia Troncoso, Jesú s M. Riquelme-Santos, Catalina Gó mez-Quiles, José L. Martí nez-Ramos, and José C. Riquelme
4. Electricity Prices as a Stochastic Process 89
Yunhe Hou, Chen-Ching Liu, and Harold Salazar
5. Short-Term Forecasting of Electricity Prices Using Mixed Models 153
Carolina Garcí a-Martos, Julio Rodrí guez, and Marí a Jesú s Sá nchez
6. Electricity Price Forecasting Using Neural Networks and Similar Days 215
Paras Mandal, Anurag K. Srivastava, Tomonobu Senjyu, and Michael Negnevitsky
7. Estimation of Post-Storm Restoration Times for Electric Power Distribution Systems 251
Rachel A. Davidson, Haibin Liu, and Tatiyana V. Apanasovich
8. A Nonparametric Approach for River Flow Forecasting Based on Autonomous Neural Network Models 285
Vitor Hugo Ferreira and Alexandre P. Alves da Silva
Index 297
