Prospect Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis in the Asia Pacific

By examining major events in Asian security, this book investigates why and how leaders make risky and seemingly irrational decisions in international politics. The authors take the innovative step of integrating the neoclassical realist framework in political science and prospect theory in psychology. Their analysis suggests that political leaders are more likely to take risky actions when their vital interests and political legitimacy are seriously threatened. This pioneering book tests and expands prospect theory to the study of Asian security and challenges traditional, expected-utility-based, rationalist theories of foreign policy behavior.

1. Prospect Theory, Neoclassical Realism, and Foreign Policy Puzzles in Asian Security. 2. "Why Is There No NATO in Asia" Revisited: U.S. Alliance Strategy under Risk. 3. North Korea Goes Nuclear: Rational Decisions and Risky Behavior. 4. China's Policy toward Taiwan under Risk: Between Military Coercion and Political Pressure. 5. China-Japan Territorial Disputes in the East China Sea: Risky Behavior during Power Transition. 6. Rational Leaders and Risky Decisions: Risk-Taking Behavior in World Politics