This book concentrates on the five biggest recessions in the twentieth century. It focuses on the UK, but makes numerous comparisons to recessions in other countries. Two major recessions are identified in the interwar period; three more in the years 1973-1995. The main conclusion reached is that major recessions reflect abrupt fallings off in demand not supply, and can be explained by identifiable demand shocks. The concluding chapter offers advice on how to avoidfuture severe recessions: a combination of prudent policy-making beforehand and special measures in the downturn and recovery.
Inhaltsverzeichnis
1: Introduction
Part I. Prior Assumptions and Methodological Preliminaries
2: The Facts which Have to be Explained
3: The Causal Structure of the Economy
4: Supply and Demand Influence on the Rate of Growth
5: Shocks and Response in Major Fluctuations
Part II. Case Studies of Five Major Recessions
6: The Two Interwar Recessions (1920-22 and 1929-32) and the US Great Depression
7: The Prolonged Interval without Major Recession 1945-73
8: The Two OPEC Recessions (1973-75 and 1979-82)
9: The Credit Expansion of the late Eighties and the Recession of the Early Nineties
Part III. Conclusions
10: The Theoretical Model: The Behaviour of the Economy in Major Fluctuations
11: The Causation of Major Recessions: Summary and Discussion of Empirical Findings
Before his death in 1998, Christopher Dow was Visiting Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). His distinguished career included periods as Senior Economic Adviser to the UK Treasury, Deputy Director of NIESR, Assistant Secretary General of OECD, and Executive Director of the Bank of England.
Pressestimmen
."..a fascinating book...a fitting epitaph."--David Smith. The Sunday Times
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