Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk

This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice.
It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM).
Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.

1 Introduction and research methodology. - 2 Integrated Assessment. - 3A Uncertainty. - 3B Risk. - 4 Uncertainty and risk in perspective. - 5 Pluralistic framework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (prima). - 6 Exploring the need for prima: a case-study approach. - 7 Searching for uncertainty in rivm s Environmental Outlooks. - 8 Exploring prima s first steps in practice the case of the 5thEnvironmental Outlook. - 9 Perspectives on uncertainty and risk: conclusion and discussion. - Appendix 1 Letter to the Trouw editor. - Appendix 2 Track record of DeKwaadsteniet affair. - Appendix 3 Argumentation analysis schemes.