Agricultural Finance is the only book which comprehensively deals with worldwide agriculture markets, spikes in agricultural commodity prices, trading strategies (CTAs and others), the agribusiness industry, the challenges of feeding the planet as well as the fascinating subjects of land, water, fertilizers, biofuels and ethanol. Given their importance to human life, cycles in agricultural commodity prices are very different from the likes of copper or crude oil.
With over 15 chapters the book will feature topics such as agricultural insurance, energy, shipping and bunker prices, sustainability, ethanol, water, investments in land, fertilizers, soft commodities such as sugar, coffee ; rubber; agricultural policies, subsidies, econometrics and agricultural derivatives and farming risk-management.
Contents will also include chapters on:
1."Futures, options on Agricultural Commodities and Risk-Management in Farming and Agribusiness"
2. Real Options in Land and Valuation of Physical Assets, Crushers and Storage Facilities
3. Structured Products and ETFs on Agricultural Commodities
4. Trade Finance in an Era of Credit Shortage
5. Securitization and Commodity- Linked Notes
6 Grains (wheat, corn, soybeans)
7 Softs: Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton
8. Shipping as a Key component of Agricultural trade; the Major Routes and the Costs
Inhaltsverzeichnis
Acknowledgments xiii
About the Author xv
Preamble xvii
1 Physical and Financial Agricultural Markets 1
1. 1 Agriculture and the Beginning of Human Sedentarization 1
1. 1. 1 Some recent numbers 2
1. 1. 2 The growing role of Africa 2
1. 2 The Outlook of Agricultural Commodities Markets 3
1. 2. 1 Recent mergers and acquisitions 3
1. 2. 2 'Trading places': from the abcd to the now 4
1. 2. 3 The physical markets 9
1. 2. 4 The global flows of commodities 10
1. 2. 5 Back to the future: a new age for barter 11
1. 2. 6 The sources of information in agricultural commodity markets 12
1. 3 History of Commodity Futures and Spot Markets 12
1. 3. 1 The actors in financial markets 12
1. 3. 2 The actors in agricultural commodity exchanges 13
1. 3. 3 The growth of Futures markets exchanges and the recent mergers 14
1. 3. 4 Futures markets and price volatility 15
1. 3. 5 The role of indexes in the creation of efficient commodity spot markets 16
1. 3. 6 Commodities and numé raire 17
1. 4 Shipping and Freight 17
1. 4. 1 International trade 18
1. 4. 2 Price formation in freight markets 18
2 Agricultural Commodity Spot Markets 25
2. 1 Introduction 25
2. 2 Price Formation in Agricultural Commodity Markets 25
2. 3 Volatility in Agricultural Markets 27
2. 3. 1 Volatility of the price level versus return in agricultural commodity markets 32
2. 3. 2 Which factors drive volatility? 36
2. 3. 3 Conclusion 38
3 Futures Exchanges - Future and Forward Prices - Theory of Storage - The Forward Curve 39
3. 1 Major Commodity Exchanges 39
3. 2 Forward Contracts 41
3. 3 Futures Contracts 43
3. 3. 1 Definition 43
3. 3. 2 Exchange of Futures for physicals (efp) 44
3. 4 Relationship between Forward and Futures Prices 45
3. 5 Example of a Future Spread 47
3. 6 Inventory and Theory of Storage 47
3. 6. 1 Spot and Futures prices volatilities 49
3. 6. 2 Development of the theory of storage: inventory and prices 51
3. 7 The Benefits of Forward Curves 52
3. 7. 1 Trading strategies around forward curves 52
3. 7. 2 Example of a seasonality-based Futures spread 53
3. 7. 3 From linear to convex payoffs 54
3. 8 Stochastic Modeling of the Forward Curve 55
4 Plain Vanilla Options on Commodity Spot and Forward Prices. The Bachelier-Black-Scholes Formula, the Merton Formula, the Black Formula 59
4. 1 Introduction 59
4. 2 Classical Strategies involving European Calls and Puts 62
4. 2. 1 Straddle 62
4. 2. 2 Strangle 62
4. 2. 3 Call spread or vertical call spread 63
4. 2. 4 Butterfly spread 64
4. 3 Put-Call Parity for a Non-dividend Paying Stock 64
4. 4 Valuation of European Calls: the Bachelier-Black-Scholes Formula and the Greeks 66
4. 4. 1 Consequences of the Black-Scholes formula 70
4. 4. 2 The Greeks 71
4. 5 The Merton (1973) Formula for Dividend-paying Stocks 75
4. 6 Options on Commodity Spot Prices 77
4. 7 Options on Commodity Futures: the Black (1976) Formula 78
4. 8 Monte-Carlo Simulations for Option Pricing 79
4. 8. 1 The founding result 79
4. 8. 2 Monte-Carlo methods for plain vanilla options on non-dividend paying stocks 80
4. 8. 3 Monte-Carlo methods for plain vanilla options on the spot commodity 82
4. 9 Implied Volatility, Smile, and Skew in Equity Option Markets 83
4. 10 Volatility Smile in Agricultural Commodity Markets 86
4. 10. 1 W here is the liquidity in agricultural commodity option markets? 86
4. 10. 2 Extracting the implied volatility from options on commodity Futures 86
5 Commodity Swaps, Swaptions, Accumulators, Forward-Start, and Asian Options 89
5. 1 Swaps and Swaptions 89
5. 2 Accumulators 92
5. 3 Forward-Start Options (or Calendar Spread Options on the Spot Price) 93
5. 4 Asian Options as Key Instruments in Commodity Markets 95
5. 4. 1 Approximation of the arithmetic average by a geometric average 96
5. 4. 2 Approximation of the distribution of the arithmetic average by a log-normal distribution 97
5. 4. 3 Monte-Carlo simulations for Asian options valuation 98
5. 4. 4 Exact results (Geman and Yor, 1993) 100
5. 5 Trading the Shape of the Forward Curve through Floating-strike Asian Options 102
6 Exchange, Spread, and Quanto Options in Commodity Markets 103
6. 1 Exchange Options 103
6. 2 Commodity Spread Options and Their Importance in Commodity Markets 105
6. 3 Commodity Quanto Options 109
7 Grain Cereals: Corn, Wheat, Soybean, Rice, and Sorghum 113
7. 1 Introduction 113
7. 2 Corn 113
7. 3 Wheat 118
7. 3. 1 W heat trading 119
7. 3. 2 Global wheat 119
7. 3. 3 The wheat supply chain 120
7. 4 Soybeans 123
7. 5 Rice 126
7. 6 Sorghum 129
8 Sugar, Cocoa, Coffee, and Tea 133
8. 1 Sugar 133
8. 1. 1 Links of sugar with other commodities 134
8. 1. 2 Sugar trading 135
8. 1. 3 The European Union 136
8. 1. 4 Special relations of the eu with other countries 136
8. 1. 5 The United States 136
8. 1. 6 Special relations of the usa with other countries 137
8. 1. 7 Brazil 137
8. 1. 8 China 138
8. 1. 9 India 138
8. 1. 10 Thailand 139
8. 1. 11 Australia 139
8. 1. 12 Guatemala and Cuba 139
8. 1. 13 Sugar cane in Mauritius 140
8. 2 Cocoa 140
8. 3 Coffee 146
8. 4 Tea 149
9 Cotton, Timber and Wood, Pulp and Paper, Wool 153
9. 1 Cotton 153
9. 2 Lumber and Wood 156
9. 3 Pulp and Paper 158
9. 3. 1 Pulp NBSK and BHKP indexes 159
9. 3. 2 Pulp US NBSK index 160
9. 3. 3 Pulp BHKP China 160
9. 3. 4 Pulp NBSK China 161
9. 3. 5 When bank notes go plastic 161
9. 4 Wool and Cashmere 162
9. 4. 1 Cashmere 163
9. 4. 2 From the Kashmir Goat to high quality yarns 164
10 Orange Juice, Livestock, Dairy, and Fishery 165
10. 1 Orange Juice 165
10. 2 Livestock 166
10. 2. 1 Livestock markets 167
10. 2. 2 Cattle 168
10. 2. 3 Hogs 169
10. 2. 4 Pork bellies 169
10. 2. 5 The US live cattle contract specifications 170
10. 2. 6 Australia 171
10. 2. 7 The USA 171
10. 3 Dairy 172
10. 4 Fish Markets 173
10. 5 Poultry and Eggs 174
11 Rubber, Palm Oil, and Biofuels 177
11. 1 Rubber 177
11. 2 Palm Oil 180
11. 2. 1 The oil palm and palm oil 181
11. 2. 2 Markets 182
11. 3 Ethanol, Biofuels, and Biomass 183
12 Land, Water, and Fertilizers 187
12. 1 Land Types, Yields, and Erosion 187
12. 1. 1 Yield-at-risk 187
12. 1. 2 Land competition 188
12. 1. 3 Farmland in the USA 188
12. 2 Fertilizers 189
12. 2. 1 Fertilizer markets 191
12. 2. 2 Fertilizer Index, corn, and wheat price trajectories over the period 1991 to 2011 193
12. 2. 3 Fertilizer producing companies and share price returns over the period 2004 to 2011 193
12. 2. 4 A factor model for the share returns of fertilizer firms 198
12. 3 Water and its crucial Role in the World Economy 207
12. 3. 1 The case of Australia, China, and Saudi Arabia 208
12. 3. 2 The case of Brazil 208
12. 3. 3 Competition for electricity, water, and land 209
12. 4 Projections for the Future of Agriculture 209
12. 4. 1 Farm insurance 210
12. 4. 2 Estimating long-term agricultural supply 210
12. 4. 3 Market concentration 211
12. 4. 4 Spare capacity 211
12. 5 Subsidies and Export Bans 211
12. 5. 1 Subsidies 212
12. 5. 2 Export bans 212
12. 6 Market-oriented Farming 212
12. 6. 1 Open wheat market takes root in Canada 213
12. 6. 2 Kansas City wheat Futures trading coming to an end after 157 years 213
12. 6. 3 China food needs 214
13 Infrastructure and Farming Management in the Digital Age 217
13. 1 Introduction 217
13. 2 Agricultural Infrastructure 218
13. 2. 1 Total factor productivity 218
13. 2. 2 Climate change 219
13. 2. 3 Irrigation and increased productivity 219
13. 2. 4 Trends in irrigation 219
13. 2. 5 Storage 220
13. 2. 6 Grain elevators 220
13. 2. 7 Soybean crushers 220
13. 2. 8 The Brave New World of Monsanto 221
13. 2. 9 Infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa 221
13. 2. 10 Gabon: after black gold, green gold? 221
13. 2. 11 Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) in Nigeria 222
13. 2. 12 Digital age on the farm: prescriptive planting 222
13. 2. 13 Sugar biofactory for ethanol in Brazil 224
13. 2. 14 After ethanol, railway, and natural gas 224
13. 2. 15 From iron ore mining to cattle farming in Australia 225
13. 2. 16 Robots for cow milking 225
13. 2. 17 Containers for agricultural commodities 226
13. 2. 18 Singapore as a hub for refrigeration containers 226
13. 2. 19 The trip of the banana 226
13. 2. 20 Energy, water, and infrastructure for DAP and agriculture in Saudi Arabia 227
13. 3 Country Risk: the Example of Ukraine in 2014 227
13. 4 Analyzing the Risks Involved in an International Wheat Tender Offer 228
13. 5 Weather Risk and Weather Derivatives 229
14 Investing in Agricultural Commodities, Land, and Physical Assets 233
14. 1 Purchase of Commodity Futures 233
14. 2 Purchase of Commodity Options and Structured Products 235
14. 3 Commodity Index Investing 236
14. 3. 1 Some prominent commodity indexes 236
14. 3. 2 How commodity indices are constructed 238
14. 3. 3 Commodity-linked bonds 239
14. 4 Investing in Commodity-related Equities 239
14. 5 Investing in Land 240
14. 5. 1 The US case 241
14. 5. 2 The world case 241
14. 6 Acquisition of Infrastructure and Physical Assets 242
14. 6. 1 Valuation of a transformation plant using a real options approach 242
14. 6. 2 D CF approach to the valuation of a transformation plant 243
14. 6. 3 Valuation of a silo (or an aquifer, or any storage facility) 245
14. 7 Conclusion 247
Glossary 248
References 252
Index 257
