Probabilistic Thinking

This volume provides a necessary, current and extensive analysis of probabilistic thinking from a number of mathematicians, mathematics educators, and psychologists. The work of 58 contributing authors, investigating probabilistic thinking across the globe, is encapsulated in 6 prefaces, 29 chapters and 6 commentaries. Ultimately, the four main perspectives presented in this volume (Mathematics and Philosophy, Psychology, Stochastics and Mathematics Education) are designed to represent probabilistic thinking in a greater context.

SERIES PREFACE: Gabriele Kaiser and Bharath Sriraman. - ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. - FOREWORD: Keith Devlin. - INTRODUCTION: Egan Chernoff and Bharath Sriraman. - PERSPECTIVE I: MATHEMATICS AND PHILOSOPHY. - Preface to Perspective I: Mathematics and Philosophy: Egan Chernoff and Gale Russell. - I. I. A historical and philosophical perspective on probability: Manfred Borovcnik and Ramesh Kapadia. - I. II. From puzzles and paradoxes to concepts in probability: Manfred Borovcnik and Ramesh Kapadia. - I. III. Three approaches for modeling situation with randomness: Andreas Eichler and Markus Vogel. - I. IV. A modeling perspective on probability: Maxine Pfannkuch and Ilze Ziedins. - Commentary on Perspective I: Mathematics and Philosophy: Bharath Sriraman and Kyeong-Hwa Lee. - PERSPECTIVE II: PSYCHOLOGY. - Preface to Perspective II: Psychology : Wim van Dooren. - II. I. Statistical thinking: no child left behind: Björn Meder and Gerd Gigerenzer. - II. II. The A-B-C of probabilistic literacy: Laura Martignon. - II. III. Intuitive conceptions of probability and the development of basic math skills: Gary Brase, Sherri Martinie and Carlos Castillo-Garsow. - II. IV. Testing a model on probabilistic reasoning: Francesca Chiesi and Caterina Primi. - II. V. Revisiting the medical diagnosis problem: reconciling intuitive and analytical thinking: Lisser Rye Ejersbo and Uri Leron. - II. VI. Rethinking probability education: perceptual judgment as epistemic resource: Dor Abrahamson. - II. VII. Sticking to your guns: a flawed heuristic for probabilistic decision-making: Deborah Bennett. - II. VIII. Developing probabilistic thinking: what about peoples conceptions: Annie Savard. - Commentary I on Perspective II: Psychology : Brian Greer. - Commentary II on Perspective II: Psychology: Richard Lesh and Bharath Sriraman. - PERSPECTIVE III: STOCHASTICS. - Preface to Perspective III: Stochastics: Bharath Sriraman and Egan Chernoff. - III. I. Prospective primary school teachers perception of randomness: CarmenBatanero, Pedro Arteaga, Luis Serrano and Blanca Ruiz. - III. II. Challenges of developing coherent probabilistic reasoning: rethinking randomness and probability from a stochastic perspective: Luis Saldanha and Yan Liu. - III. III. It is very, very random because it doesn t happen very often : examining learners discourse on randomness: Simin Jolafee, Rina Zazkis and Nathalie Sinclair. - III. IV. Developing a modelling approach to probability using computer-based simulations: Theodosia Prodromou. - III. V. Promoting statistical literacy through data modelling in the early school years: Lyn D. English. - III. VI. Learning Bayesian statistics in adulthood: Wolff-Michael Roth. - Commentary on Perspective III: Stochastics: Mike Shaughnessy. - PERSPECTIVE IV: MATHEMATICS EDUCATION. - Preface to Perspective IV: Mathematics Education: Bharath Sriraman and Egan Chernoff. - IV. I. A practitional perspective on probabilistic thinking models and frameworks: Edward S. Mooney, Cynthia Langrall and Joshua T. Hertel. - IV. II. Experimentation in probability teaching and learning: Per Nilsson. - IV. III. Investigating the dynamics of stochastic learning processes: Susanne Prediger and Susanne Schnell. - IV. IV. Counting as a foundation for learning to reason about probability: Carolyn A. Maher and Anoop Ahluwalia. - IV. V. Levels of probabilistic reasoning of high school students about binomial problems: Ernesto Sánchez and Pedro Rubén Landín. - IV. VI. Children s construction of sample space with respect to the law of large numbers: Efi Paparistodemou. - IV. VII. Researching conditional probability problem solving: Pedro Huerta. - IV. VIII. Real life experiences as hindrance in probabilistic situations: Ami Mamolo and Rina Zazkis. - IV. IX. Influence of culture on high school students probabilistic thinking: Sashi Sharma. - IV. X. Primary school students attitudes to and beliefs about probability: Steven Nisbet and Anne Williams. - Commentary on Perspective IV: Mathematics Education: JaneWatson. - COMMENTARY on Probabilistic Thinking: Presenting Plural Perspectives: Egan Chernoff and Bharath Sriraman. - AUTHOR INDEX. - SUBJECT INDEX.